Global shares edged up 2% in the third quarter of 2026 and the S&P 500 set fresh records, but the quarter was marked by sharp rises in oil prices and bond yields. The Gulf truce collapsed, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again and the US reimposed a naval blockade. Crude oil rose about 30% over the quarter, Brent spent most of September above USD 100 and commodities gained 16%. By early October, oil was flowing through Hormuz at about 80% of pre-war levels. Long-term yields rose, led by US government bonds, and the US 30-year yield reached 5.6%, a level last seen in 2002.
In US dollars, developed market equities gained 2.0% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, while emerging markets were flat. Japan rose 3.8% in yen and the UK 2.4% in sterling, while continental European shares fell 1.3% in euros. US small caps fell 7.2%. The report described the US rally as narrow, with a handful of technology and AI companies contributing most of the gains. US earnings rose more than 30% in the second quarter.
Bonds fell. The US 10-year yield rose by more than 0.8 percentage points to 5.29%, driven by inflation fears linked to oil, central banks switching to rate rises and heavy government borrowing. US Treasuries lost 3.0%, euro government bonds 4.4% and global corporate bonds 3.4%, while high yield fell 1.8%. Central banks raised rates rather than cutting: the Federal Reserve by 0.25% to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first rise in three years, the ECB by 0.25% to 2.50% and the Bank of Japan by 0.25% to 1.25%. The Bank of England held at 3.75% and the Swiss National Bank at 0%.
On the economy, US business surveys were at their highest since mid-2021, while consumer confidence was the lowest since 2014 and inflation was back at 3.4%. European activity grew at its fastest pace in almost three and a half years, and India grew 7.8% in April to June. New US tariffs were announced, and talks between the US and Canada broke down in August.
Important information: This snapshot summarises MWC Group's market commentary for the period shown and is provided for general information only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any investment, and it does not take account of your personal circumstances. Views and figures reflect conditions at the date of publication and may since have changed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invested. Exchange-rate movements can affect returns. Market data comes from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please seek personal advice before making any investment decision. Issued by MWC Group (Manentia Wealth Consulting Group AG and its subsidiaries). Services are provided by the locally authorised group entity; see our Regulation page.